bankroll managment

i am going to start a bankroll management exersize, however u spell that word.


3 months before my ftops victory i was practing perfect bankroll managment, i was never playing above 2-4 and always had more than 100 buy ins. i discussed it with some friends and i think this is why i crushed that game, i would never really get emotional because i was never putting a signifigant portion of my roll at risk. life was really good because i was certain i would never go broke following those rules.

after ftops i kept playing 2-4, then was tempted in by 3-6 n 5-10, i figured i was still over rolled for both those games, so why not give them a shot a few times. i became very successful at those games so i moved up to 10-20, where i also found a lot of success. at this point i was moving a little too fast, i should of chilled at the 5-10 and 10-20. i started playing 25-50 when i got back from australia. i was underolled, underprepared, and unlucky. this made me lose a lot of money. i think you really have to build up 100 buy ins for the game your playing to help you get over that hump. winning ftops really just let me experience new limits and show me where im at as a poker player without risking a big % of my roll.


if your moving up limits when u have 100 buy ins, youve definently put in the hours and prove you can beat the limit below you, and your ready to take a shot at moving up. and if you miss that shot, and lose 4 buy ins, you can move down to the limit you were previously playing, and win that back in 8 buy ins, not a big deal.

if i could do things over, id move up to 5-10, and stop there till i had 300k then move to 10-20 till i had 550. im saying more tha n100 buy ins for me because i started overrolled due to ftops so i think i should stay at the lower limits a little bit longer



my new plan is


im buying in around 20k after i move in and had a little break. im going to start at 2-4 (which i realize is 50 buy ins) and untill i have 60k in my poker account, im not moving up to 3-6.


other requirements. 3 buy in loss limit. if i lose 3 buy ins, im only allowed to play tournaments or smaller cash games the rest of the day.

a lot of people say you should have a win limit. ex: if your up 5 buy in for the day, you quit. i dont like this rule, i think your playing your best when your winning and your opponents are playing their worst when their losing. so this is the perfect time to tee off and run up as much as you can. this is where good players make a lot of their money.


eventually, regulars cant just pick on newbs anymore. especially when u reach 25-50. regulars have to play other regulars, its just the nature of the game. someone sinks someones swims. so when i am playing, if anyone from the forum sees one of the regulars from the stakes im playing, playing very loose and poorly, or just notices the player is down a lot of buy ins for that day, or is playing multiple tables. id love it if you IMed me and pointed it out to me

i dont know how to say this without coming off rude, but id love it if someone would scout games for me. its a huge edge if someone is playing multiple tables and im only playing 1. or if their losing and are off their game.

+ to the ev! math

+ to the ev! sent me a hand today. we were trying to decide if it was a +ev play or not. let me show you how to break down the math to decide. this math is only correct if were assigning correct hand ranges to the 2 opposing players.

heres the hand in question

Full Tilt Poker Game #5267299372: FTOPS Event #15 (39924392), Table 178 - 200/400 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:00:53 ET - 2008/02/15
Seat 1: Erich Kollmann (44,072)
Seat 2: monika13 (34,415)
Seat 3: LMB then GTFO (24,536)
Seat 4: Babooyah (8,815)
Seat 5: Rocknhrdplac (30,271)
Erich Kollmann antes 50
monika13 antes 50
LMB then GTFO antes 50
Babooyah antes 50
Rocknhrdplac antes 50
monika13 posts the small blind of 200
LMB then GTFO posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #1
rezdogz (Observer): dang!
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to LMB then GTFO [9d Td]
Babooyah folds
Rocknhrdplac folds
DeliveranAce sits down
DeliveranAce adds 8,842
Erich Kollmann raises to 1,650
monika13 has 15 seconds left to act
monika13 raises to 5,600
LMB then GTFO has 15 seconds left to act
LMB then GTFO has requested TIME
LMB then GTFO raises to 24,486, and is all in
Erich Kollmann folds
monika13 calls 18,886
LMB then GTFO shows [9d Td]
monika13 shows [Ah Kd]
*** FLOP *** [5h Ac 8d]
*** TURN *** [5h Ac 8d] [Jd]
*** RIVER *** [5h Ac 8d Jd] [2c]
LMB then GTFO shows Ace Jack high
monika13 shows a pair of Aces
monika13 wins the pot (50,872) with a pair of Aces

we assume that whenever the sb calls, the bb folds. it makes it a lot easier and only varies the answer by a very little




.55(7775) + .45((.15)(((.21)(30611) - .79(24486)) + ((.30(26861) - .70(24486))) =



725+1650+5400

7775



button calls 1.4/19.5 = .072 = 7.2%

sb calls 2.6/6.8 = .382 = 38.2%


.55(7775) + .45((.15)(-12915.63) + (.85)(-9081.9))



.21(30611) - .79(24486) .30(26861) - .70(24486)


6428.31 - 19343.94 = -12915.63 8058.3 - 17140.2 = -9081.9



.55(7775) + .45(-1937.3445 - 7719.615)


4276.25 + -4345.63 = -69.38




-69.38 > -450



heres how all that works. he has a 55% chance of taking down the pot without anyone calling him. and hes called by one of the players 45% of the time. in that 45% the sb called 15% and the bb called 85%. he has 21 percent equity against the buttons calling range, and 30% equity against the bb calling range. notice he wins more than his stack when hes called because of the extra money in the pot.

so this hand the way he played it has an expected value of 69.38 chips, about an ante.

this is a minus ev hand. but this is a +ev play. do you see why?


if he makes this play, hes losing 69 chips on average from his stack. but if he folds, hes losing 450 chips every single time. because of his blind and ante
so hes actually winning 1 bb on average with this play, because the money in the pot isnt his anymore.

review

so i went over some hand histories and ive come to realize this downswing is more the result of running bad than it is of bad play, a lot of the hands i still can not find a way to play differently. some the only thing i could of done, and now have started doing is folding preflop. sometimes i play a hand i shouldnt preflop and end up trapping myself and i think its a leak.


not sure i can do anything about this

FullTiltPoker Game #5015786255: Table Aspect (heads up) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:05:21 ET - 2008/01/27
Seat 1: Kadabra ($2,100)
Seat 2: scallon123 ($1,899.50)
scallon123 posts the small blind of $10
Kadabra posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kadabra [Jc Jd]
scallon123 raises to $60
Kadabra raises to $180
scallon123 calls $120
*** FLOP *** [5d 2d 3d]
Kadabra bets $265
scallon123 calls $265
*** TURN *** [5d 2d 3d] [Th]
Kadabra has 15 seconds left to act
Kadabra bets $600
scallon123 raises to $1,454.50, and is all in
Kadabra calls $854.50
scallon123 shows [Ac Ah]
Kadabra shows [Jc Jd]
*** RIVER *** [5d 2d 3d Th] [Kh]
scallon123 shows a pair of Aces
Kadabra shows a pair of Jacks
scallon123 wins the pot ($3,798.50) with a pair of Aces
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $3,799 | Rake $0.50
Board: [5d 2d 3d Th Kh]
Seat 1: Kadabra (big blind) showed [Jc Jd] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 2: scallon123 (small blind) showed [Ac Ah] and won ($3,798.50) with a pair of Aces



should of folded preflop here

FullTiltPoker Game #4988235407: Table Orbit (heads up) - $25/$50 - No Limit Hold'em - 6:55:47 ET - 2008/01/25
Seat 1: WatchOutMom ($22,022.75)
Seat 2: Kadabra ($7,243)
Kadabra posts the small blind of $25
WatchOutMom posts the big blind of $50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kadabra [As 7c]
Kadabra raises to $150
WatchOutMom raises to $600
Kadabra calls $450
*** FLOP *** [7h 7s 3c]
WatchOutMom bets $750
Kadabra calls $750
*** TURN *** [7h 7s 3c] [9d]
WatchOutMom bets $1,600
Kadabra calls $1,600
*** RIVER *** [7h 7s 3c 9d] [2h]
WatchOutMom bets $19,072.75, and is all in
Kadabra calls $4,293, and is all in
Uncalled bet of $14,779.75 returned to WatchOutMom
*** SHOW DOWN ***
WatchOutMom shows [9h 9s] a full house, Nines full of Sevens
Kadabra mucks
WatchOutMom wins the pot ($14,485.50) with a full house, Nines full of Sevens
Kadabra is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $14,486 | Rake $0.50
Board: [7h 7s 3c 9d 2h]
Seat 1: WatchOutMom (big blind) showed [9h 9s] and won ($14,485.50) with a full house, Nines full of Sevens
Seat 2: Kadabra (small blind) mucked [As 7c] - three of a kind, Sevens


i dont know how i can play this different other than checkraising the turn. same result tho.


FullTiltPoker Game #4987936721: Table Orbit (heads up) - $25/$50 - No Limit Hold'em - 5:42:20 ET - 2008/01/25
Seat 1: WatchOutMom ($7,454.25)
Seat 2: Kadabra ($6,318.75)
WatchOutMom posts the small blind of $25
Kadabra posts the big blind of $50
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kadabra [Tc Th]
WatchOutMom raises to $150
Kadabra raises to $450
WatchOutMom calls $300
*** FLOP *** [Jh Jc 7h]
Kadabra bets $700
WatchOutMom has 15 seconds left to act
WatchOutMom calls $700
*** TURN *** [Jh Jc 7h] [4d]
Kadabra has 15 seconds left to act
Kadabra bets $1,550
WatchOutMom calls $1,550
*** RIVER *** [Jh Jc 7h 4d] [5c]
Kadabra has 15 seconds left to act
Kadabra bets $3,618.75, and is all in
WatchOutMom calls $3,618.75
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Kadabra shows [Tc Th] two pair, Jacks and Tens
WatchOutMom shows [Jd Qd] three of a kind, Jacks
WatchOutMom wins the pot ($12,637) with three of a kind, Jacks
Kadabra is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $12,637.50 | Rake $0.50
Board: [Jh Jc 7h 4d 5c]
Seat 1: WatchOutMom (small blind) showed [Jd Qd] and won ($12,637) with three of a kind, Jacks
Seat 2: Kadabra (big blind) showed [Tc Th] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Tens




i think i played this right and just got ul


FullTiltPoker Game #4988326546: Table Orbit (heads up) - $25/$50 - No Limit Hold'em - 7:18:00 ET - 2008/01/25
Seat 1: WatchOutMom ($31,976.75)
Seat 2: Kadabra ($5,000)
WatchOutMom posts the small blind of $25
Kadabra posts the big blind of $50
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kadabra [Jh Kh]
WatchOutMom raises to $150
Kadabra raises to $450
WatchOutMom calls $300
*** FLOP *** [Ts 4c 6d]
Kadabra bets $650
WatchOutMom calls $650
*** TURN *** [Ts 4c 6d] [Jc]
Kadabra has 15 seconds left to act
Kadabra bets $1,450
WatchOutMom raises to $23,300
Kadabra calls $2,450, and is all in
WatchOutMom shows [Qs Ks]
Kadabra shows [Jh Kh]
Uncalled bet of $19,400 returned to WatchOutMom
*** RIVER *** [Ts 4c 6d Jc] [Ac]
WatchOutMom shows a straight, Ace high
Kadabra shows a pair of Jacks
WatchOutMom wins the pot ($9,999.50) with a straight, Ace high
Kadabra is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $10,000 | Rake $0.50
Board: [Ts 4c 6d Jc Ac]
Seat 1: WatchOutMom (small blind) showed [Qs Ks] and won ($9,999.50) with a straight, Ace high
Seat 2: Kadabra (big blind) showed [Jh Kh] and lost with a pair of Jacks



i think this one was a big mistake not folding preflop. its a leak i intend on fixing


FullTiltPoker Game #4988297705: Table Orbit (heads up) - $25/$50 - No Limit Hold'em - 7:10:57 ET - 2008/01/25
Seat 1: WatchOutMom ($25,728.75)
Seat 2: Kadabra ($8,529.50)
Kadabra posts the small blind of $25
WatchOutMom posts the big blind of $50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kadabra [As 7s]
Kadabra raises to $150
WatchOutMom raises to $600
Kadabra calls $450
*** FLOP *** [4d Td Ad]
WatchOutMom checks
Kadabra checks
*** TURN *** [4d Td Ad] [2s]
WatchOutMom bets $850
Kadabra calls $850
*** RIVER *** [4d Td Ad 2s] [3h]
WatchOutMom has 15 seconds left to act
WatchOutMom bets $2,250
Kadabra calls $2,250
*** SHOW DOWN ***
WatchOutMom shows [Ah Kc] a pair of Aces
Kadabra mucks
WatchOutMom wins the pot ($7,399.50) with a pair of Aces
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $7,400 | Rake $0.50
Board: [4d Td Ad 2s 3h]
Seat 1: WatchOutMom (big blind) showed [Ah Kc] and won ($7,399.50) with a pair of Aces
Seat 2: Kadabra (small blind) mucked [As 7s] - a pair of Aces


FullTiltPoker Game #4987596053: Table Effort (heads up) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 4:25:25 ET - 2008/01/25
Seat 1: Kadabra ($2,030)
Seat 2: uuhhhicall ($2,279.50)
uuhhhicall posts the small blind of $10
Kadabra posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kadabra [6h 7c]
uuhhhicall raises to $60
Kadabra raises to $180
uuhhhicall calls $120
*** FLOP *** [Tc 6d 3s]
Kadabra checks
uuhhhicall bets $270
Kadabra has 15 seconds left to act
Kadabra has requested TIME
Kadabra calls $270
*** TURN *** [Tc 6d 3s] [6c]
Kadabra has 15 seconds left to act
Kadabra bets $350
uuhhhicall calls $350
*** RIVER *** [Tc 6d 3s 6c] [4d]
Kadabra has 15 seconds left to act
Kadabra has requested TIME
Kadabra bets $1,230, and is all in
uuhhhicall calls $1,230
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Kadabra shows [6h 7c] three of a kind, Sixes
uuhhhicall shows [3d 3c] a full house, Threes full of Sixes
uuhhhicall wins the pot ($4,059.50) with a full house, Threes full of Sixes
Kadabra is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4,060 | Rake $0.50
Board: [Tc 6d 3s 6c 4d]
Seat 1: Kadabra (big blind) showed [6h 7c] and lost with three of a kind, Sixes
Seat 2: uuhhhicall (small blind) showed [3d 3c] and won ($4,059.50) with a full house, Threes full of Sixes


FullTiltPoker Game #4987794074: Table Effort (heads up) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 5:08:22 ET - 2008/01/25
Seat 1: Kadabra ($1,930)
Seat 2: uuhhhicall ($7,885.50)
Kadabra posts the small blind of $10
uuhhhicall posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kadabra [5c 5d]
Kadabra raises to $60
uuhhhicall raises to $210
Kadabra calls $150
*** FLOP *** [Ts 3s 5h]
uuhhhicall bets $350
Kadabra calls $350
*** TURN *** [Ts 3s 5h] [2h]
uuhhhicall bets $7,325.50, and is all in
Kadabra calls $1,370, and is all in
uuhhhicall shows [Js Qs]
Kadabra shows [5c 5d]
Uncalled bet of $5,955.50 returned to uuhhhicall
*** RIVER *** [Ts 3s 5h 2h] [8s]
uuhhhicall shows a flush, Queen high
Kadabra shows three of a kind, Fives
uuhhhicall wins the pot ($3,859.50) with a flush, Queen high
Kadabra is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $3,860 | Rake $0.50
Board: [Ts 3s 5h 2h 8s]
Seat 1: Kadabra (small blind) showed [5c 5d] and lost with three of a kind, Fives
Seat 2: uuhhhicall (big blind) showed [Js Qs] and won ($3,859.50) with a flush, Queen high


maybe i fold to this... i dunno



FullTiltPoker Game #4968073174: Table Even (heads up) - $25/$50 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:20:05 ET - 2008/01/23
Seat 1: Kadabra ($7,121.50)
Seat 2: God_of_Thund ($12,647.50)
God_of_Thund posts the small blind of $25
Kadabra posts the big blind of $50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kadabra [Qh As]
God_of_Thund calls $25
Kadabra raises to $200
God_of_Thund calls $150
*** FLOP *** [Ah Qs 8s]
Kadabra bets $300
God_of_Thund calls $300
*** TURN *** [Ah Qs 8s] [8c]
Kadabra bets $850
God_of_Thund calls $850
*** RIVER *** [Ah Qs 8s 8c] [Td]
Kadabra bets $2,150
God_of_Thund has 15 seconds left to act
God_of_Thund raises to $6,000
Kadabra calls $3,621.50, and is all in
Uncalled bet of $228.50 returned to God_of_Thund
*** SHOW DOWN ***
God_of_Thund shows [8d Jh] three of a kind, Eights
Kadabra mucks
God_of_Thund wins the pot ($14,242.50) with three of a kind, Eights
Kadabra is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $14,243 | Rake $0.50
Board: [Ah Qs 8s 8c Td]
Seat 1: Kadabra (big blind) mucked [Qh As] - two pair, Aces and Queens
Seat 2: God_of_Thund (small blind) showed [8d Jh] and won ($14,242.50) with three of a kind, Eights






anyway theres some hand histories, as of right now ive excluded myself from ftp till ftops. my plan right now is to final table an ftops event for 30k+ and get myself back to feeling good. my back up plan is to have about 10k in my account, and make some challenge to run that to 100k by june or something.

ive been thinking of a new plan. ftp runs hu sngs ranging from 1 dollar buy ins to 5k. the truth is the games dont even get tough till about the 1k buy ins. my possible plan is to switch over to sngs playing only the small buy ins, 100, 200, and 500's

the reasons for this are

1. the players are weak.

2. if i can average +4 buy ins a day thats an alright living.

3. the sng only takes about 15 minutes to play. so i can get in probably 20 a day.

i think this plan has some potential, the money doesnt seem like much, especially after 25-50, but i think 200+200+200 eventually adds up. i feel like the swings might be a lot softer too.

Back on track

I'm starting to think a lot more clearly now. ive realized that ive been overplaying my hands because it works to an extent at the lower limits, but it doesn't against the more experienced players. ive adjusted my game very well and i think ill be seen crushing the 5-10 and the 10-20 and soon the 25-50. things are starting to go right again and im feeling very grateful and positive right now.

downswing

alright so i know a lot of people expected this, some rooted for it. but ive taken a hit, im down 40k today. had a couple of really bad hands. it was at 10-20 and 25-50. i have a lot more of my game to work on. im in the process of cashing out most of my roll, so i can stay at the lower limits. im not really on tilt, im not really angry, this pretty much has happened to me everytime ive tried moving up limits, ive always lost my first time. and its stupid and immature for me to bitch about losing when you have to lose to learn. of course, today is the biggest loss of my life, but im not really angry, or tilted. i hope this means im growing up and will be able to handle myself even more professionally in the future. for now im going to count my blessings and try to write up a plan for the future, hopefully im not in too deep and i can still make this a +6 figure year. if anyone has any suggestions, id love to hear it.

back from australia

Met some really cool people, had a good time, made a final table. it was a really fun trip and i look forward to it next year. things i learned: Australian girls have sexy accents, hold em bonus can be beat, emad sucks, Australians love ice cream, tony bloom is a douche, Yevgeniy is an age of war fish, im a tv fish, Carter is a champagne fish, and Fraiser is just a fish, Mandy B's a real person, "jamie's (Gold) cool" -Wasicka,

ill add some pictures later

Live pros (rant)

to be honest, most the people you see playing poker on tv are terrible. jamie gold, victor ramdin, david williams, they are all just publicity blimps. let me explain why, i woke up this morning and turned on "poker after dark". at the table was doyle brunson (who i do think is one of the exceptions) tj cloutier, and possibly the biggest joke phil hellmuth. phill hellmuth did nothing right, he is an absolutely terrible tournament player, and i cant say much better about his overbetting spewtatstic cashgame. heres the rule, and every really great player follows this, when you have less than 10 big blinds, its stack time, there is no more limping and playing postflop poker. this is called push-fold. 3 handed the blinds were 1500-3000. tj had about 25,000 and picked up AA on the button, he raised to 7k (although i said its push fold, this isnt an awful play with this strong of a hand, exspecially if your opponent is a weak player like phil hellmuth) doyle folded in the small blind, and phil had A6s. phil barely had tj covered, but effectively he only has 25000 in chips now that doyles out of the hand. right now, its push-fold. first off a6 plays terrible oop postflop, exspecially if your gonna check dark (like he did...) what phill hellmuth should have been doing, was determing a range for tj cloutier and decided if his hand played well against that range. to my eye, its obvious he has a huge hand, because ill give tj a little credit to realize that it is push-fold time and he should be commited after any raise. this is why this is an easy laydown, yes of course phil is getting good odds to call, but he has no implied odds and you just cant take a flop with less than 10 bb.

phil ends up playing the hand just awful after that and rivers tj


later,
heads up between doyle and phil. 2000-4000 blinds, phil with about 38000, he limps A6.... its stack time, this is push fold, theres 6000 in the middle you need to be picking up. then doyle raises, now look what hes done to himself


few hands later, J4 hes got 24000, HE LIMPS AGAIN. its push-fucking-fold. you cant limp here, all in or muck (all in is my preference) and of course doyle puts him in and he has to fold.


few hands later phil with 16000, he gets Q3, he limps.... this is ridiculous, the blinds are 2000-4000 and he has 12k after the limp, barely a pot sized bet. heres the worst part, doyle puts him in, then he calls. IF YOUR GOING TO LIMP CALL, WHY NOT JUST PUSH IN YOURSELF?

and of course phil bitches because he doesnt know how badly outplayed he was. its a real joke hes in the poker hall of fame, and its a real joke that 85% of these people we see on tv, are awful players.