Bobby Baldwin's message

"I've heard good players complian to me about how they get outdrawn all of the time. But if they want to better their game and their emotional state while playing they should realise it os a mirage. If you are an excellent player, people are going to draw out on you alot more than youre going to draw out on them because theyre simply going to have the worst hand against you a lot more times than you have the worst against them. there is no way you are going to draw pout on anybody if you don't get your money in with the worst hand" Bobby baldwin




the truth is, the REALLY good players, are gonna be in showdown situations with the worst hand a decent chunk of the time. really good players makes lots of bluffs and semi bluffs. this is what i didnt understand for a while, when i always got sucked out on. i would always say to myself "how do i keep losing, if im always in with the best hand" well you can sit around all day and wait for AA. then push everytime you get it. hence your the best player in the world cuz your money has NEVER got in bad. right... no


the good players are getting there money in with strong draws, and a good amount of the time, there gonna push out there opponent, and when called, they have a good shot at winning the pot. i realized this the first time i played bill ivey. the hand went like this




6 handed table, i got 1000 in front of me, he has me covered

hes 2nd to act and he makes it 35. i look down at AA, ok here we go


i make it 120 to go, iwant action, folds to him, who calls.


flop comes 7C2C7D


he checks, i bet 210, he makes it 570, i move all in, and he calls instantly.


turn was 9c, river Jh



he flips QC8C for the winning flush.


im sitting there in shock. how can a player as well respect as bill ivey call an all in on a flush draw. so i decided to research the style a little bit, i watched him, grandiose, H@llingol play. a lot of the times there moving all in with monster draws in an attempt to pick up the pot, or gamble.


i always used to hate life whenever i got it in with the worst hand.cuz i thought thats what poker was all about. and thats why i never sucked out on anyone, cuz i would always make sure i was in with a really good hand.

now i play a much more flexible style. i make a lot of moves with draws. often get a lot of money in the middle. ussually i pick up the pot. but sometimes i get all in with only a 40% chance of winning. and i suck out about 41% of the time.




i mentioned that the object of the move with the draw is to get them to fold. obviously they wont fold everytime, and thats where variance comes in.

bill ivey made the right call mathmatically, he was gettin over 3 to 1. but in his mind i dont have AA there every time, and might just muck to the reraise, and i will muck to the reraise enough to make his play profitable. and 1 in every 3 times i dont, hell win the pot anyway.


when bill ivey hit his flush when we were all in, i jus said, o ok, well obviously im the better player, because i got all in with the best hand. its what i thought poker was about. but if your going to get chopped away all day, then get it in good, youll eventually lose.



i often hear players say, "i waited for this hand all day, i didnt play one hand, and as soon as i got my hand, i was gone. he reraised me like 15 times and i was just waiting to trap him, and he gets lucky"




heres the issue. lets say you both start with 1000 chips. and he plays you down to 700 by makin moves with draws and your folding. now you get all in KK vs AQ

your gonna double through 70% of the time. and go broke 30%

lets pretend this is a tournament



(.70)650 - (.30)650 = 260.



even tho you get your money in great, on average, your not even collecting enough for the chip lead. that may sound funny because 650 + 650 = 1300. but im saying if poker were done as a percentage chop.

meaning (whenever you are all in, you take a % of the pot that your hand is to win the hand)


when your opponent wins the hand (30% of the time he will) the tournament is over. when you win, you need to do what you just did... again.

lets say your playing the same style.


you get grinded down 400 chips, now you have 900

and you fall into the same situation KK vs AQ.

you need to dodge again to win the tournament.



what im really trying to say is, if you can grind down your opponent, to the point where you have a chance to end the tourney on an all in, and if he wisn your pretty close to even. your outplaying them.

sitting around and waiting for the perfect hand, while you might be in with the best of it more often, is not the optimal strategy.