New challenge

probably my toughest challenge yet. i went on a downswing that i estimated to cost me around 62,000 dollars. i lost it quickly. the challenge is to get it back, the long way. (no, im not getting a job) i started with 1k in my account. the goal is to get from 1k to 62k. im not putting a time limit on this because i feel no need to rush this. rushing is how you make mistakes. im going to stay within my bankroll, and move up the limits, hopefully i will complete this challenge, and keep up the good habits and move to the top.

ive been rewatching the old wsop and wpts. its amazing how much more i understand about the game then the last time i remeber watching these. i remeber what i was thinking years ago when i watched them, and now when i rewatch them i understand why certain things were done, who actually played there hand well, and its very easy for me to weed out a mistake from a good play. just because the announcer says "nicely played by erickson" doesnt mean the man played the hand well, he could of played it horrible. in fact most the plays the announcers say are nice are ussually terrible, lets take marcel luske min raising from early position with KJ off suit to 32k, being repopped to 132k from the button, and he flats with only a 400k chip stack behind oop. flop of course comes K33 and trumps the QQ from the button and all of a sudden hes a genious, the play was absolutely terrible. the reverse implied odds on KJ...



anyway, im not really setting a bankroll rule to start, at this point, i only have 7k, i dont mind playing 2-4 on a 7k roll although it is under rolled, when i make the transition to the 5-10, its going to be a lot more important and i will be very very strict on it. i think im gonna need to complete this challenge before playing another hand of 5-10. once i do complete the challenge ill enter the 5-10 games, when i get to 120k. ill allow myself to take shots at the 10-20. i dont know when ill be able to step back into the 25-50. maybe 200k, maybe 400k.


every single time ive moved up i hit a block, when i moved from 1-2 to 2-4 i lost 4000 bucks quick, when i moved to 3-6 i quickly lost 5k, when i moved to 5-10 i lost 9k right off the start. when i moved to 10-20 i lost about 12k. every single time i kind of sulked, got over it, got back on horse and was eventually able to be profitable in the game. when i went to 25-50 i lost about 40k. this is a longer sulking/getting over it period. im back on the horse now playing 2-4, if the transition to 25-50 is anything like the others, ill eventually be beating it. i never thought id be able to beat the 5-10 game and now it seems like a piece of cake. if i can beat the 25-50 on a consistent basis, i can earn a good living playing poker. this is the hardest step in poker and im preparing to take it on.

every time ive moved up, ive gotten beat. i think its just part of the game. i kind of been having this mindset of, "well when i lost before i was losing amounts of money that really couldnt get me much anyway, but now the downswings are the size of luxury cars."

i need to get that out of my head, its not good for me.





im going to start blogging about this, i think it will be helpfull for everyone, because i plan to play every limit on this journey, which started at 1-2.



roll: $7,059.33
I need: $54,940.67

bankroll managment

i am going to start a bankroll management exersize, however u spell that word.


3 months before my ftops victory i was practing perfect bankroll managment, i was never playing above 2-4 and always had more than 100 buy ins. i discussed it with some friends and i think this is why i crushed that game, i would never really get emotional because i was never putting a signifigant portion of my roll at risk. life was really good because i was certain i would never go broke following those rules.

after ftops i kept playing 2-4, then was tempted in by 3-6 n 5-10, i figured i was still over rolled for both those games, so why not give them a shot a few times. i became very successful at those games so i moved up to 10-20, where i also found a lot of success. at this point i was moving a little too fast, i should of chilled at the 5-10 and 10-20. i started playing 25-50 when i got back from australia. i was underolled, underprepared, and unlucky. this made me lose a lot of money. i think you really have to build up 100 buy ins for the game your playing to help you get over that hump. winning ftops really just let me experience new limits and show me where im at as a poker player without risking a big % of my roll.


if your moving up limits when u have 100 buy ins, youve definently put in the hours and prove you can beat the limit below you, and your ready to take a shot at moving up. and if you miss that shot, and lose 4 buy ins, you can move down to the limit you were previously playing, and win that back in 8 buy ins, not a big deal.

if i could do things over, id move up to 5-10, and stop there till i had 300k then move to 10-20 till i had 550. im saying more tha n100 buy ins for me because i started overrolled due to ftops so i think i should stay at the lower limits a little bit longer



my new plan is


im buying in around 20k after i move in and had a little break. im going to start at 2-4 (which i realize is 50 buy ins) and untill i have 60k in my poker account, im not moving up to 3-6.


other requirements. 3 buy in loss limit. if i lose 3 buy ins, im only allowed to play tournaments or smaller cash games the rest of the day.

a lot of people say you should have a win limit. ex: if your up 5 buy in for the day, you quit. i dont like this rule, i think your playing your best when your winning and your opponents are playing their worst when their losing. so this is the perfect time to tee off and run up as much as you can. this is where good players make a lot of their money.


eventually, regulars cant just pick on newbs anymore. especially when u reach 25-50. regulars have to play other regulars, its just the nature of the game. someone sinks someones swims. so when i am playing, if anyone from the forum sees one of the regulars from the stakes im playing, playing very loose and poorly, or just notices the player is down a lot of buy ins for that day, or is playing multiple tables. id love it if you IMed me and pointed it out to me

i dont know how to say this without coming off rude, but id love it if someone would scout games for me. its a huge edge if someone is playing multiple tables and im only playing 1. or if their losing and are off their game.

+ to the ev! math

+ to the ev! sent me a hand today. we were trying to decide if it was a +ev play or not. let me show you how to break down the math to decide. this math is only correct if were assigning correct hand ranges to the 2 opposing players.

heres the hand in question

Full Tilt Poker Game #5267299372: FTOPS Event #15 (39924392), Table 178 - 200/400 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:00:53 ET - 2008/02/15
Seat 1: Erich Kollmann (44,072)
Seat 2: monika13 (34,415)
Seat 3: LMB then GTFO (24,536)
Seat 4: Babooyah (8,815)
Seat 5: Rocknhrdplac (30,271)
Erich Kollmann antes 50
monika13 antes 50
LMB then GTFO antes 50
Babooyah antes 50
Rocknhrdplac antes 50
monika13 posts the small blind of 200
LMB then GTFO posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #1
rezdogz (Observer): dang!
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to LMB then GTFO [9d Td]
Babooyah folds
Rocknhrdplac folds
DeliveranAce sits down
DeliveranAce adds 8,842
Erich Kollmann raises to 1,650
monika13 has 15 seconds left to act
monika13 raises to 5,600
LMB then GTFO has 15 seconds left to act
LMB then GTFO has requested TIME
LMB then GTFO raises to 24,486, and is all in
Erich Kollmann folds
monika13 calls 18,886
LMB then GTFO shows [9d Td]
monika13 shows [Ah Kd]
*** FLOP *** [5h Ac 8d]
*** TURN *** [5h Ac 8d] [Jd]
*** RIVER *** [5h Ac 8d Jd] [2c]
LMB then GTFO shows Ace Jack high
monika13 shows a pair of Aces
monika13 wins the pot (50,872) with a pair of Aces

we assume that whenever the sb calls, the bb folds. it makes it a lot easier and only varies the answer by a very little




.55(7775) + .45((.15)(((.21)(30611) - .79(24486)) + ((.30(26861) - .70(24486))) =



725+1650+5400

7775



button calls 1.4/19.5 = .072 = 7.2%

sb calls 2.6/6.8 = .382 = 38.2%


.55(7775) + .45((.15)(-12915.63) + (.85)(-9081.9))



.21(30611) - .79(24486) .30(26861) - .70(24486)


6428.31 - 19343.94 = -12915.63 8058.3 - 17140.2 = -9081.9



.55(7775) + .45(-1937.3445 - 7719.615)


4276.25 + -4345.63 = -69.38




-69.38 > -450



heres how all that works. he has a 55% chance of taking down the pot without anyone calling him. and hes called by one of the players 45% of the time. in that 45% the sb called 15% and the bb called 85%. he has 21 percent equity against the buttons calling range, and 30% equity against the bb calling range. notice he wins more than his stack when hes called because of the extra money in the pot.

so this hand the way he played it has an expected value of 69.38 chips, about an ante.

this is a minus ev hand. but this is a +ev play. do you see why?


if he makes this play, hes losing 69 chips on average from his stack. but if he folds, hes losing 450 chips every single time. because of his blind and ante
so hes actually winning 1 bb on average with this play, because the money in the pot isnt his anymore.